Feeling lost or confused in the world of crypto? September brings fresh challenges and opportunities. Let’s dive into what’s on the horizon.
August left many crypto enthusiasts feeling down, with Bitcoin seeing an 11.2% drop, and many altcoins fared even worse. Historically, September hasn’t been kind either, with an average return of -7% for Bitcoin.
History shows that the price of #Bitcoin tends to dip in September. 📉
— Op Crypto (@OpCryptoUK) September 4, 2023
Will this year be a repeat, or will the bulls surprise us?#BTC pic.twitter.com/ZeBLnvij9a
So, what’s in store for this September?
The spotlight remains on the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the SEC. However, it’s likely the SEC will delay a final decision until late 2023 or early Q4. Any significant developments on this front could sway market dynamics and prices.
For now, the crypto market appears apathetic. The enthusiasm seen during the Grayscale victory has waned, leaving us with an “exhausted ETF bid.”
What makes this exhaustion concerning is the impending supply overhang in Q4, primarily concerning Bitcoin. Various factors, such as government-held Silk Road Bitcoin, Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin, and significant altcoins reaching their mid-supply curves, add to the supply challenge.
In a typical market, this sell pressure might be manageable. But in the current low-liquidity environment, it doesn’t take much volume to move prices.
Without renewed interest, the market faces uncertainty. Yet, there is hope. Buyers may step in at certain price levels, but the question is, where? Factors like the ETF approval timeline and changes in the macro environment will influence this.
The macro environment is crucial. Upcoming events, like the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 20th, will shape market sentiment.
The CPI reading will be closely watched after the recent uptick in inflation. The FOMC meeting, in light of persistent inflation, may offer insights into the Fed’s future actions.
In summary, September and Q4 are likely to bring volatility. Keep an eye on the ETF approval process, macroeconomic factors, and key dates. Despite challenges, opportunities exist, especially for those playing the long game and understanding the crypto landscape’s twists and turns. Stay informed, stay patient, and navigate the crypto journey with confidence.
